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Ask the editors: The Aviation Week Network invites our readers to ask questions of our editors and analysts. We’ll answer them, and if we can’t, we’ll reach out to our extensive network of experts for advice.
Aviation Week has significantly reduced its 10-year forecast for new commercial aircraft from last year’s forecast. Can you put a dollar value on it?
Aviation Week Fleet and Flight Analyst Daniel Williams responds:
Our 10-year annual fleet and MRO forecast has just been launched and, as you can imagine, there are significant changes from last year’s forecast.
Our forecast for 2020 called for more than 23,000 deliveries of new aircraft for 2020-29. Our new forecast for 2021 shows just over 16,000 new aircraft delivered for 2021-30, a reduction of just over 30%. The reduction is mainly due to the global COVID-19 pandemic but also in part to the putting on hold of the Boeing 737 MAX production line.
Regional and single-aisle aircraft deliveries fell by around 27% in the latest forecast, while the forecast for twin-aisle deliveries was down more than 40% from the previous year.
In terms of dollar value, the 2020 forecast for new aircraft deliveries (using the Recommended Retail Price, or RRP) was $ 3.2 trillion, while our 2021 forecast shows deliveries of new aircraft totaling $ 2.1 trillion, representing a 34% drop in the dollar. value. This is mainly due to the fact that fewer expensive double aisle deliveries are expected over the decade.
