Maple Leafs Commentary: Core 4 Dollar Value Comparison

We recently wrote an article that predicted the production of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ top four players for the 2022-23 season using the progression and regression of each player’s production over the past four seasons.

Our goal today is to expand on that position by trying to put a dollar value on each of the four main players over the past three seasons.

Capture the production of every Core Four player over the past three seasons

For the first part of the article, we’ll compare each player’s production over the past three seasons with their annual salary cap reached to see (in terms of production) how much value the Maple Leafs have received from each of them. .

Next, since the vast majority of people outside of professional sports are paid based on the time they spend working, we’ll also break down a player’s cap and compare it to minutes played over the past three seasons. This will help show the monetary value of their production.

What does Core Four general production look like?

The only thing players have no control over are injuries. In an effort to account for games lost to injury, we will be proposing an 82 game to score rhythm for each of the four players. We’ll do this by calculating each player’s points-per-game pace over the past three seasons and extending that to a pace of 82 games, which is the length of a full regular NHL season.

Player Games played Points scored Points per game 82 rhythm game
Auston Matthews 195 252 1.29 106
John Tavares 198 186 0.94 77
Mitch Marmer 186 231 1.24 102
William Nylander 200 181 0.91 75

What does the Core Four Salary-Cap-Hit-Per-Point look like?

Now that we’ve shown each player’s point production over the past three seasons broken down to a single season’s pace, we’ll compare that pace to their salary cap to arrive at a cost per point.

Rank Player 82 game scoring rhythm Annual cap reached Cap reached by point
#1 Nylander 75 Points $6,962,366 $92,832
#2 marmer 102 Points $10,903,000 $106,892
#3 Matthew 106 Points $11,640,250 $109,814
#4 Tavares 77 Points $11,000,000 $142,857

This chart shows that when it comes to production, Nylander gives the Maple Leafs the best value for money. Over the past three seasons, he’s cost the Maple Leafs $92,832 per run scored.

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