Maduro’s rejection of legitimacy dates back to early 2015, when the Obama administration declared Venezuela a threat to US national security. The statement paved the way for Trump’s tough sanctions, designed to intimidate global companies into severing ties with Venezuela. Francisco Rodriguez, a Venezuelan economist formerly of the Bank of America and senior opposition adviser, extrapolated that without the sanctions, oil production in the high-yielding Orinoco region would have been three to five times higher this year.
In the November elections, the conservative Popular Volunteer party, founded by Lopez, will present candidates on the ticket of an alliance between the main opposition parties in the country. A host of small moderate parties are also fielding candidates who have criticized the sanctions and, contrary to popular will and its allies, recognize Maduro’s legitimacy. The fragmentation of the opposition increases the possibility that Maduro’s United Socialist Party will achieve plurality at the ballot box.
A recent poll placed the Socialist Party’s popularity at 34%, compared to 13% for the Popular Will and the rest of the opposition combined. (Opposition pollster Luis Vicente Leon, on the other hand, says the Socialist Party is at 20 to 25 percent). Despite the advance of the Socialist Party, a “Nicaraguan phenomenon” (where the Nicaraguan elected the Sandinistas from power in 1990 for fear of continued violence and economic sanctions promoted by the United States) could benefit the party. ‘opposition.
Virtually nothing has changed since President Joe Biden took office in 2020, Maduro recently claimed. “There has not been a single positive sign,” Maduro lamented, while acknowledging that at least some State Department officials “agree with a political dialogue between Venezuelans.”
Nonetheless, Biden’s policy departs from Trump’s strategy of inciting a military coup and threat of military intervention. However, despite this approach, the Panam Post noted that the Biden administration has generally downplayed the importance of Venezuela and âturned its gaze to Nicaragua,â where the prospects for regime change are more promising.
The real change in 2021 has been to make Maduro consider the economic and political interests of the United States, as opposed to regime change. Days after the 2020 U.S. election, Abrams recommended that Biden no longer use sanctions as a regime change strategy against Venezuela. Instead, the new approach proposes modifying or lifting the sanctions in exchange for Maduro’s concessions.
Maduro, in an interview with Bloomberg, said he knew how to play the game. “Bondholders know it’s possible to invest in Venezuela,” he said, “as long as all this persecution and those sanctions are not there. “
In response, Bloomberg reporter Erik Schatzker asked: “When negotiations begin, if they do, will you seek an all-or-nothing deal, or will you accept a gradual process? “
Except: “The policy of the United States towards Venezuela has never been to promote democracy”